Abstract
Mumps is a common childhood viral disease and children have been vaccinated throughout the world since 1967. The incidence of mumps has increased with more than 300,000 young people infected with mumps annually in mainland China since 2005. Therefore, we designed and analyzed long-term mumps surveillance data in an SVEILR (susceptible–vaccinated–exposed–severely infectious–mildly infectious–recovered) dynamic transmission model with optimized parameter values to describe the dynamics of mumps infections in China. There were 18.02% of mumps infected young adults seeking medical advice. The vaccine coverage has been insufficient in China. Young adults with frequent contact and mild infection were identified as a major driver of mumps epidemics. The reproduction number of mumps was determined 4.28 in China. Sensitivity analysis of the basic reproduction number and the endemic equilibrium was conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of mumps control measures. We propose to increase the vaccine coverage and make two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccines freely available in China.
Highlights
Mumps is best known as a common childhood viral disease and is highly contagious to human beings
Mathematical analysis shows that the basic reproduction number R0 is a sharp threshold completely determining the global dynamics of model Equation (2): if R0 ≤ 1, the disease-free equilibrium P0 is globally asymptotically stable and the mumps dies out; if R0 > 1, the endemic equilibrium P∗ is globally asymptotically stable, namely, the mumps persists at the endemic equilibrium state if only it initially exists
The beginning of a disease transmission is directly related to the basic reproduction number R0, while disease prevalence is closely linked with the endemic equilibrium P∗ [34]
Summary
Mumps is best known as a common childhood viral disease and is highly contagious to human beings. Mumps is preventable by two doses of the mumps vaccine in many developed countries nowadays [13]. Most case-patients had been inoculated with a second dose of the MMR vaccine more than 10 years previously [21,22]. This was the first large-scale US mumps outbreak among the population with two-dose vaccines. Qu [23] proposed a non-autonomous SVEILHR (susceptible–vaccinated–exposed–mild infectious–severe infectious–hospitalized–recovered) model with a seasonal varying transmission rate to describe the epidemic of mumps, and suggested improving vaccine coverage and providing two doses of MMR (Measles, mumps and rubella) vaccine by the government in China.
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