Modelling the suitability of multiple launch rocket system in the war in Ukraine

Abstract

Since the war started, both Russian and Ukraine forces have been using Multiple Launch Rocket System (MLRS). Theoretically, the heated particulate matter residuals from MLRS could be captured by satellite imageries, but this premise has never been tested. In this study, the Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS) data were analyzed to identify anthropogenic thermal anomalies resulting from the war in Ukraine. The research team examined the frequency of Feb–June FIRMS in both long-term (2001–2021) and short-term trends (2022), as well as the recency of last FIRMS date. In addition, other crucial factors like site control and the proximity of nearby Russian troops are also considered in developing this suitability model. Human analysts with military knowledge, understanding of standard operating procedure and the strategic importance of a developing battlefield were deployed to identify potential tactical firing locations. The proposed model was developed on Google Earth Engine for ease of distribution and deployment. Four case studies are demonstrated to illustrate the implemented model, interpreted in the context of ongoing conflicts and verified by geospatial intelligence crowdsourced and/or reported by the public and social media. This study provides counter-MLRS geospatial intelligence from crowdsourced data and publicly available satellite imagery.