Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of COVID-19 outbreaks and prioritization of the risk areas in Toronto, Canada.

Abstract

Modelling the spatiotemporal spread of a highly transmissible disease is challenging. We developed a novel spatiotemporal spread model, and the neighbourhood-level data of COVID-19 in Toronto was fitted into the model to visualize the spread of the disease in the study area within two weeks of the onset of first outbreaks from index neighbourhood to its first-order neighbourhoods (called dispersed neighbourhoods). We also model the data to classify hotspots based on the overall incidence rate and persistence of the cases during the study period. The spatiotemporal spread model shows that the disease spread to 1-4 neighbourhoods bordering the index neighbourhood within two weeks. Some dispersed neighbourhoods became index neighbourhoods and further spread the disease to their nearby neighbourhoods. Most of the sources of infection in the dispersed neighbourhood were households and communities (49%), and after excluding the healthcare institutions (40%), it becomes 82%, suggesting the expansion of transmission was from close contacts. The classification of hotspots informs high-priority areas concentrated in the northwestern and northeastern parts of Toronto. The spatiotemporal spread model along with the hotspot classification approach, could be useful for a deeper understanding of spatiotemporal dynamics of infectious diseases and planning for an effective mitigation strategy where local-level spatially enabled data are available.