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Abstract
The current anthropogenic impacts on nature necessitate more research for nature conservation and restoration purposes. To answer ecological and conservation questions concerning endangered species, individual-based modelling is an obvious choice. Individual-based models can provide reliable results that may be used to predict the effects of different future conservation strategies, once calibrated correctly. Here, we calibrate an individual-based model of Maui dolphin movement, which generates Maui dolphin probability distribution maps. We used sighting data for calibration of the chosen parameter combinations; for each simulation run, collected simulated data was compared to the empirical survey data, resulting in cost (Badness-of-Fit) estimates. Using costs of four different aspects of dolphin behaviour, we estimated the most likely parameter combinations. With optimized parameter values, Maui dolphin probability distribution maps were created, resulting in distributions that fall well outside of the current protection zones where either gillnets or trawling or both are prohibited. With these results, protected areas can be properly adjusted to the estimated distribution of this critically endangered species and so aid in their conservation.
Highlights
For the conservation of species vulnerable to extinction, it is useful to explore the effectiveness of different restoration scenarios
An urgent case in which high quality model projections are needed is that of the Maui dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui)
We developed a tailor-made individual-based model of Maui dolphin movement, which can be used to project the impact of fishing activities on the Maui dolphin population under alternative policy scenarios
Summary
For the conservation of species vulnerable to extinction, it is useful to explore the effectiveness of different restoration scenarios. The declining population (Martien et al, 1999; Slooten et al, 2000; Baker et al, 2013; Wade et al, 2012) that was once distributed along the west and south coasts of New Zealand’s North Island (Du Fresne, 2010; Dawson et al, 2001) is restricted to a much smaller area of approximately 300 km along the west coast, with most recent sightings within an area of about 140 km length (Oremus et al, 2012) Besides their small coastal geographic range and population size, Maui dolphins have a slow reproduction rate, endangering their survival (Davidson et al, 2012). The New Zealand government has increased restrictions to fishing activities in a zone along the west coast after the death of a Maui dolphin in 2012 (Hamner et al, 2014), current restrictions are not yet sufficient to result in population recovery
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