Modelling the socio-economic impacts of coal production reduction: A macro provincial analysis of China

Abstract

Reducing coal production is the key way for China to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. Meanwhile, it will also have a significant impact on China's socio-economic development. In this study, an energy-economic-environmental-social model based on the Extended Energy Big Data principle (EEBD-3ES) was constructed to evaluate the socio-economic impacts of coal production reductions under different scenarios. The results show that different coal reduction scenarios will reduce national CO2 emissions by 598.9–1026.27 billion tons and cumulatively reduce GDP by 194.57–410.54 billion yuan, with a reduction of the comprehensive index by 0.05–0.21 %. Based on inter-provincial coal and electricity trade, this study also quantifies the provincial socio-economic impacts under different reduction scenarios. These findings provide recommendations for policy makers to make strategic decisions to gradually reduce coal production and minimize the socio-economic impacts.