Modelling the Slovenian Wood Industry’s Response to the Greenhouse Gas Paris Agreement and the EU “Fit for 55” Green Transition Plan

Abstract

Almost 200 nations, including the European Union, have signed the Paris Agreement that aims to limit the temperature rise to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels by reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. To meet this target, a significant decrease in GHG emissions by 2030 and net zero by 2050 is necessary. To determine the role of wood products in achieving a 55% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared with 1990 levels, we investigated Slovenia’s potential, which has close to 60% forested areas. Therefore, the country could use wood-based products to achieve the agreed-upon climate goals. Nevertheless, uncertainties remain regarding the extent to which increased tree harvesting, local manufacturing, and the utilization of wood products can aid in substituting fossil-derived materials and reducing GHG emissions. A new model was constructed to increase the understanding of the wood products’ (throughout the forest-based industrial ecosystem, incl. construction) potential contribution to reaching the stated emissions targets. Using this linear programming (LP) mathematical optimisation model and carbon footprint calculations based on life cycle assessment methods, a wood flow distribution, the financial investment needed to process these quantities, and the GHG emissions produced and/or saved were calculated. The findings stipulated that Slovenia has the potential to achieve 55 % less GHG emissions by 2030 by expanding logging to at least 3 million m3 and converting the timber to a larger amount of long service-life wooden items made (and utilised) within the country. Such products accumulate carbon for a long time and decrease the need for materials that cause higher GHG emissions. Concomitantly, a better appreciation of the substitution effects in official carbon accounting would be needed. Moreover, to materialize the potential decrease in emissions would require Slovenia’s construction sector to replace fossil- and mineral-based materials with lignocellulosic products, and to increase the capacity to utilize lower-quality wood in high added value applications, which would require significant investment. This paper offers a comprehensive analysis of diverse optimisation outcomes obtained from the investigation into climate action through the use of wood products in Slovenia.