Abstract
The Indo-Burman arc is the boundary between the India and Burma plates, north of the Sumatra–Andaman subduction zone. The existence of active subduction in the Indo-Burman arc is a debatable issue because the Indian plate converges very obliquely beneath the Burma plate. Recent GPS measurements in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and northeast India indicate 13–17 mm/y of plate convergence along a shallow dipping megathrust while most of the strike-slip motion occurs on several steep faults, consistent with patterns of strain partitioning at subduction zones. A short period of instrumentally recorded seismicity and sparse historical records are insufficient to assess the possibility of great earthquakes at the Indo-Burman megathrust. Using the advantage of the Block-and-Fault Dynamics model allowing simultaneous simulation of slow tectonic motions and earthquakes, we test the hypothesis whether the India-Burma detachment is locked and able to produce great earthquakes, or it slips aseismically? We have shown that the model of locked detachment is preferred because it more adequately reproduces observed tectonic velocities. The integral characteristics of synthetic seismicity, the earthquake size distribution, and the rate of seismic activity are consistent with those derived from observations. Our results suggest that the megathrust is locked and can generate great M8+ earthquakes. The estimated average return period of great events exceeds one thousand years. Earthquakes of this size pose a great threat to NE India, Bangladesh and Myanmar, the most densely populated areas of the world.
Highlights
The Indo-Burman arc is the boundary between the India and Burma plates, north of the Sumatra– Andaman subduction zone
We performed three numerical experiments (EX1–3) to study the dynamics of the Indo-Burman arc depending on the style of stress release in the megathrust:
The simulated velocities in the Arakan-Tripura and eastern Indo-Burman Ranges (IBR) blocks are much larger than observed ones if Indo-Burman Detachment (IBD) is completely or partially unlocked (Fig. 2b,c,e,f)
Summary
The Indo-Burman arc is the boundary between the India and Burma plates, north of the Sumatra– Andaman subduction zone. Recent GPS measurements in Bangladesh, Myanmar, and northeast India indicate 13–17 mm/y of plate convergence along a shallow dipping megathrust while most of the strike-slip motion occurs on several steep faults, consistent with patterns of strain partitioning at subduction zones. The Indo-Burman region is a prominent earthquake-prone area, where seismicity is governed by subduction of the Indian Plate beneath the Burma plate at a gentle angle (Fig. 1). This convergence is accommodated by the Indo-Burman megathrust, which resulted from an oblique collision in the Miocene[1]. The 700 km extent combined with a displacement of 10 m gives a maximum estimated magnitude of Mw8.816
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