Abstract
We assess the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic agriculture in England and Wales using a large-scale linear programming model. The model includes a range of typical farm structures, scaled up across the available land area, with the objective of maximising food production. The effects of soil and rainfall, nitrogen (N) supply/offtake and livestock feed demand are accounted for. Results reveal major reductions in wheat and barley production, whilst the production of minor cereals such as oats and rye increase. Monogastric livestock and milk production also decreased considerably, whilst beef and sheep numbers increased. Vegetable production was generally comparable to that under conventional farming. Minimising the area of fertility building leys and/or improving rates of N fixation increased the food supply from organic agriculture at the national level. The total food output, in terms of metabolisable energy, was 64% of that under conventional farming. This would necessitate substantial increases in food imports, with corresponding expansion of cultivated agricultural land overseas. Significant changes in diet and reductions in food waste would be required to offset the production impacts of a 100% conversion to organic farming.
Highlights
The continuing expansion and intensification of global agriculture presents a clear need to develop modes of production that can supply sufficient amounts of food for growing populations with more efficient use of resources (Godfray et al, 2010)
The benefits provided by organic agriculture in areas such as soil protection and rural development align with the dimensions of sustainability proposed by the United Nations following Rio + 20 through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and EU action plans such as the Biodiversity Strategy (European Commission, 2010) and Soil Thematic Strategy (European Commission, 2006)
While acknowledging these sustainability benefits and the potential for further growth in the market for organic products (Willer and Lernoud, 2016) some commentators have suggested that the lower yields observed in organic agriculture would mean that widespread conversion to organic production could be detrimental to food security
Summary
The continuing expansion and intensification of global agriculture presents a clear need to develop modes of production that can supply sufficient amounts of food for growing populations with more efficient use of resources (Godfray et al, 2010). The benefits provided by organic agriculture in areas such as soil protection and rural development align with the dimensions of sustainability proposed by the United Nations following Rio + 20 through the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and EU action plans such as the Biodiversity Strategy (European Commission, 2010) and Soil Thematic Strategy (European Commission, 2006) While acknowledging these sustainability benefits and the potential for further growth in the market for organic products (Willer and Lernoud, 2016) some commentators (for example Connor, 2008) have suggested that the lower yields observed in organic agriculture would mean that widespread conversion to organic production could be detrimental to food security. Because the land area devoted to organic farming globally currently remains very small (i.e. organic farmland constitutes approximately 1% of the total global agricultural area, Willer and Lernoud, 2016), it is difficult to extrapolate from this low baseline to assess the impacts of much larger scale adoption
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