Abstract
Systematic spatial risk analysis plays a crucial role in preventing emergencies.In the Czech Republic, risk mapping is currently based on the risk accumulationprinciple, area vulnerability, and preparedness levels of Integrated Rescue Systemcomponents. Expert estimates are used to determine risk levels for individualhazard types, while statistical modelling based on data from actual incidents andtheir possible causes is not used. Our model study, conducted in cooperation withthe Fire Rescue Service of the Czech Republic as a model within the Liberec andHradec Králové regions, presents an analytical procedure leading to the creation ofbuilding fire probability maps based on recent incidents in the studied areas andon building parameters. In order to estimate the probability of building fires, aprediction model based on logistic regression was used. Probability of fire calculatedby means of model parameters and attributes of specific buildings can subsequentlybe visualized in probability maps.
Highlights
Emergencies, whether caused by forces of nature or human activity, have accompanied humanity throughout its entire history
Based on fire data recorded by Fire Rescue Service (FRS) units, data from the Czech Statistical Office, and accessible layers of territorial units, a prediction model for fire incidents with acceptable discrimination can be assembled
Logistic regression is a suitable technique which corresponds to the binary character of the explained variable and enables estimation of fire probability in a specific building based on model parameters and said building’s attributes
Summary
Emergencies, whether caused by forces of nature or human activity, have accompanied humanity throughout its entire history. Developed societies endeavour to prevent emergencies and mitigate their negative effects. A key role in these efforts is played by systematic spatial risk analysis, an integral part of preventive security measures used in crisis and emergency planning. Such analyses take advantage of possibilities currently offered by modern technology and geographic information systems (GISs) along with the availability of many suitable mapping resources. Risk analysis enables efficient readiness planning for Integrated Rescue System units and more rapid responses to emergencies when they occur. In turn, contributes to improved protection for the population
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