Modelling the power output from a steam power plant in Nigeria

Abstract

Adequate supply of electricity at a competitive price is pivotal to sustainable development. More often than not, the generation of electricity which drives modern growth and development is currently powered by limited fossil fuels in many nations. Electricity generation and megawatt demand are also usually fluctuating due to several pertinent factors. In a bid to articulate the impact of inherent variations in process parameters on the performance of steam power plant at different loads, this paper presents an investigation into the efficacy of two validation strategies in predicting the net power output from the plant using GMDH Shell software. Using the combinatorial algorithm, the k-fold cross-validation strategy and the training/testing validation technique were applied to empirical data of a power plant in Nigeria. The performance of the models returned from the two validation strategies was evaluated using maximum negative error, maximum positive error, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), root mean square percentage error (RMSPE), residual sum, the standard deviation of residuals, coefficient of determination (R2) and correlation. For the number of folds and the training/testing split percentage considered in this study, results show that both models obtained were quite competitive, with the k-fold model having a slight edge over the other model. It is expected that the outcome of the study will be handy in researches for providing knowledge base information on choosing and setting optimum operating conditions at various load demand.