Modelling the potential distribution of two tropical freshwater fish species under climate change scenarios

Abstract

Abstract Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution patterns of freshwater fish at various spatio‐temporal scales. Tropical freshwater fish are vulnerable, especially in areas where a high impact of climate change is predicted; thus, there is an increasing need to predict these shifts to determine conservation and adaptation strategies. Ecological niche models offer a reliable way to predict the effects of climate change on species distribution. Potential shifts in the distribution of tropical fish were tested under two scenarios (4.5 – moderate and 8.5 – extreme) with three general circulation models for years 2050 and 2070 using maximum entropy software using as models two predatory species – the tropical gar Atractosteus tropicus and the giant cichlid Petenia splendida. The potential distribution of both species was associated with warm and humid–sub‐humid conditions. Future projections showed a higher availability of suitable areas for both species resulting from the expansion of warmer conditions in the middle and upper basins of the Central American mountain range and centre of the Yucatan Peninsula. Ecological niche models of keystone or umbrella species such as A. tropicus and P. splendida could be useful to support conservation plans of protected areas. The potential distribution of both species covers areas of high suitability including six important biosphere reserves in Mexico, three protected areas in Guatemala and part of the Mesoamerican biological corridor. Despite the potential expansion of the present distribution range suggested by the models, it is important to consider the biological and ecological requirements of the species and the ecological implications of these potential shifts in distribution. Both scenarios could have several implications at genetic, population, and ecosystem levels.