Modelling the potential distribution of arbovirus vector Aedes aegypti under current and future climate scenarios in Taiwan, China.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is one of the most important mosquito species and is a common disease-transmitting pest in tropical areas. Various infectious arbovirus diseases can be transmitted by Ae. aegypti. With ongoing global climate change, we are facing an increasing public health threat from the rapid spread of disease vectors into wider geographical areas. To better understand the current ecological niche range and possible future expansion of Ae. aegypti, an ecological niche modelling approach was adopted to predict its current and future potential habitat in Taiwan, China. Based on observed occurrence records and environmental layers reflecting climate and land-use conditions, predictions with a high resolution of 30 arcsec (approx. 1 × 1km) were made by our model. Ae. aegypti was predicted to expand its habitat in varying degrees out of its current niche range under different climate scenarios for the future 21st century. Winter temperature and dry season precipitation were considered as important predictors among climate variables. Croplands, pasture, forested lands and urban lands were important land-use variables. Ae. aegypti is expected to establish new habitats out of its current niche range under the trend of global climate change. The extent of habitat expansion varies under different climate scenarios. Appropriate measures should be taken to prevent its expansion to a broader scale. Our study has important strategic implications for mosquito surveillance and the prevention and control of mosquito-borne diseases. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry.