Modelling the interaction of economic and socio-behavioural factors in the prediction of farm adjustment

Abstract

This paper describes a methodology for the representation of farm household decision-making under conditions of agricultural and rural policy change. The methodology employs a Geographic Information System (GIS) to integrate a range of spatially referenced data describing the internal and external decision environments of individual farmers, and model the interaction of these variables in conditioning adjustment in response to policy change. The difficulties in identifying and representing the detailed interaction of farm and farmer characteristics with the external environment of the household and business are reviewed. From a policy perspective it is, however, of considerable importance that models which are sensitive to the complexity of the farm decision-making process are developed and evaluated, for their potential contribution in supporting policy and resource allocation decisions is considerable. The methodology described here remains highly generalized, but it represents an advance on previous techniques through the representation of economic, social and behavioural factors which interact with farm resources and external constraints to predict the response of individual farm holdings to policy and market shifts.