Abstract
World biofuel production and trade have grown exponentially in the last decade. Nevertheless, the interaction between the markets for oilseeds (food/feed/bioenergy) and liquid vegetable oil-based biofuels is overwhelmingly complex and thus not well understood. In this study, we developed a spatially explicit agent-based model to provide insights into the effect of farmers' behaviour on trade flows and biodiesel production and to shed light on the influence of import tariffs for both palm oil and biodiesel on system behaviour. This new approach enables us to assess different types of rational economic behaviour for the adoption of crops by farmers. Results show that model outcomes can vary substantially based on the assumptions made concerning the behaviour of farmers. Moreover, we found that biodiesel trade and production are more sensitive to a change in the EU-28's biodiesel import tariff than to a change in the EU-28's palm oil import tariff. Overall, our results show that social processes, actors' heterogeneity, and institutions play an important role in the behaviour of the system.
Highlights
World biofuel production and trade have grown exponentially in the last decade
We develop a spatially explicit agentbased modelling (ABM) to analyse the interaction between bioenergy policies (EU-28’s import tariffs) and in ternational trade flows for liquid biofuels
We found that both biodiesel trade flows and biodiesel pro duction are more sensitive to changes in biodiesel import tariff than to changes in palm oil import tariff
Summary
World biofuel production and trade have grown exponentially in the last decade. Since 2000, the global biofuel supply has grown by 8% annually on average (Araújo et al, 2017). In 2015, the global biofuel production amounted to 4% of the world’s transport fuels (EIA 2017). The international bioenergy market and trade are still immature and strongly linked to support and trade policies (Lamers et al, 2011). Policies such as blending mandates, subsidies, and import and export tariffs have shaped production and consumption patterns of biofuels around the globe (Sorda et al, 2010). The main barriers to the further development of this international market include the following: tariffs, technical standards, certification systems, sustainability criteria, and logistics (Junginger et al, 2011)
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