Abstract
Abstract. Socio-hydrology describes the interaction between the socio-economy and water. Recent models analyze the interplay of community risk-coping culture, flooding damage and economic growth (Di Baldassarre et al., 2013; Viglione et al., 2014). These models descriptively explain the feedbacks between socio-economic development and natural disasters like floods. Contrary to these descriptive models, our approach develops an optimization model, where the intertemporal decision of an economic agent interacts with the hydrological system. In order to build this first economic growth model describing the interaction between the consumption and investment decisions of an economic agent and the occurrence of flooding events, we transform an existing descriptive stochastic model into an optimal deterministic model. The intermediate step is to formulate and simulate a descriptive deterministic model. We develop a periodic water function to approximate the former discrete stochastic time series of rainfall events. Due to the non-autonomous exogenous periodic rainfall function the long-term path of consumption and investment will be periodic.
Highlights
During the past decades more and more floods have occurred, especially in central and eastern Europe
We develop an optimization model based on existing descriptive socio-hydrology models
We present a short summary of the model in the following as it will serve as the benchmark model for our alternative set up of a deterministic model
Summary
During the past decades more and more floods have occurred, especially in central and eastern Europe. People like to settle close to rivers to reap economic advantages: rivers enable ways of transport, supply water for industry and agriculture and enhance the quality of living due to lively nature and beautiful scenery. The awareness of flooding has increased, and societies develop projects like building levees to avoid or at least reduce flood damage. These investments are costly, but avoid damage in the future. Analysing the investment strategies is even more meaningful in an economic decision framework. We develop an optimization model based on existing descriptive socio-hydrology models
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