Abstract
To preserve crop production losses, monitoring of desert locust attacks is a significant feature of agriculture. In this paper, a mathematical model was formulated and analyzed to protect crops against desert locust attack via early intervention tactics. We consider a triple intervention approach, namely, proaction, reaction, and outbreak prevention. The model integrates a stage-structured locust population, logistics-based crop biomass, and blended early intervention via pesticide spray. We assume that the amount of pesticide spray is proportional to the density of the locust population in the infested area. Conventional short residual pesticides within ultralow volume formulation and equipment control operations are considered. The trivial and locust-free equilibrium of the model is unstable, whereas the interior equilibrium is asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations validate the theoretical results of the model. In the absence of intervention measures, desert locust losses are approximately 71% of expected crop production. The model projection shows that effective proactive early intervention on hopper stage locust contained locust infestation and subdued public health and environmental hazards. Relevant and up-to-date combined early interventions control desert locust aggression and crop production losses.
Highlights
Locusts are divisions of the grasshopper species Acrididae, which includes most short-horned grasshoppers
We confirm that the Jacobian matrix evaluated at equilibrium E0 has a positive eigenvalue (λ1 = 0:19 > 0), which implies that equilibrium E0 is unstable, Parameter rKσβμηξθ θo γ1 γ2 φ
We have evaluated the impact of early intervention to control outbreaks of this insect
Summary
Locusts are divisions of the grasshopper species Acrididae, which includes most short-horned grasshoppers. The nonflying hopper (or nymph) stage can form cohesive masses that are called hopper bands [3]. They are ravenous eaters who consume their weight per day, targeting food crops and forage. A single adult desert locust can consume two grams, and the hopper stage can consume half of the amount that an adult locust can consume per day. Just a single square kilometer of the swarm can contain up to 80 million adults, with the capacity to consume the same amount of food in one day as 35,000 people. Since the 1960s, desert locust outbreaks are better controlled and are often shorter in duration and have reduced impact. The role of climate change on such outbreaks remains a matter of debate
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