Abstract
BackgroundVaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally. In this study, we aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.MethodsWe modelled the potential impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the pandemic and the relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) by combining an epidemiological model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission with data on vaccine hesitancy from population surveys.ResultsOur simulations suggest that the mortality over a 2-year period could be up to 7.6 times higher in countries with high vaccine hesitancy compared to an ideal vaccination uptake if NPIs are relaxed. Alternatively, high vaccine hesitancy could prolong the need for NPIs to remain in place.ConclusionsWhile vaccination is an individual choice, vaccine-hesitant individuals have a substantial impact on the pandemic trajectory, which may challenge current efforts to control COVID-19. In order to prevent such outcomes, addressing vaccine hesitancy with behavioural interventions is an important priority in the control of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Highlights
Vaccine hesitancy – a delay in acceptance or refusal of vaccines despite availability – has the potential to threaten the successful roll-out of SARS-CoV-2 vaccines globally
We have examined the effects of low vaccine uptake due to vaccine hesitancy on the need to prolong other public health measures to control the pandemic
Our results suggest that when there is vaccine hesitancy and relaxation of other public health measures, mortality could increase by up to seven times compared with ideal vaccination coverage of the population
Summary
We aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on the control of the COVID-19 pandemic. We aim to understand the likely impact of vaccine hesitancy on future control of the pandemic, using a mathematical model of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to explore vaccine hesitancy through its impact on population coverage
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