Abstract
In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40–70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May.
Highlights
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have frequently been implemented [1], yet the efficacy of these restrictions has not been established
The predicted number of active clinical COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) from 14 March to 4 May 2020 broadly agrees with the data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL over this same period
From 4 May to 26 June 2020, when the travel restrictions were implemented in NL, the NL COVID-19 case data agrees with the model predictions for physical distancing scenarios corresponding to contact rates ≤ 60% of the pre-pandemic level
Summary
In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, travel restrictions have frequently been implemented [1], yet the efficacy of these restrictions has not been established. Nation [4] making the implementation of travel restrictions controversial for public health authorities [1]. 2 the impact of travel restrictions on reducing COVID-19 spread is interwoven with the impacts of other public health measures. Travel restrictions were implemented in Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) on 4 May 2020, such that only NL residents and exempted individuals were permitted to enter the province. We use a mathematical model to consider a ‘what-if’ scenario: ‘what if there were no travel restrictions?’, and in doing so, we quantify the impact that the travel restrictions had on the number of subsequent COVID-19 cases in NL
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