Abstract
BackgroundCoronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. However, there is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease.ObjectiveTo apply a metapopulation Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model with inspected migration to investigate the effect of border restriction as a public health measure to limit outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019.MethodsWe apply a modified metapopulation SEIR model with inspected migration with simulating population migration, and incorporating parameters such as efficiency of custom inspection in blocking infected travelers in the model. The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data. The R0 was obtained from previous clinical studies.ResultsComplete border closure can help to reduce the cumulative COVID-19 case number and mortality in Hong Kong by 13.99% and 13.98% respectively. To prevent full occupancy of isolation facilities in Hong Kong; effective public health measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 was necessary, apart from having complete border closure.ConclusionsEarly complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality. However, additional anti-COVID-19 measures to reduce local R0 to below 1.6 are necessary to prevent COVID-19 cases from overwhelming hospital isolation facilities.
Highlights
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world
The population sizes were retrieved from government reports, while the number of COVID-19 patients were retrieved from Hong Kong Department of Health and China Centre for Disease Control (CDC) data
Early complete travel restriction is effective in reducing cumulative cases and mortality
Summary
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) led to pandemic that affected almost all countries in the world. Many countries have implemented border restriction as a public health measure to limit local outbreak. There is inadequate scientific data to support such a practice, especially in the presence of an established local transmission of the disease. Since the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in late 2019, it rapidly evolved and became a pandemic. To limit the scale of local disease outbreak, many countries implemented travel restrictions to countries experiencing COVID-19 countries despite the World Health Organization (WHO)‘s advice to the contrary [2]. There is inadequate scientific data to support border restriction as a public health measure and it’s effectiveness in limiting local outbreak of an emerging infectious disease in the presence of an established local transmission. Whether border restriction can effectively limit local outbreak of COVID-19 is still debatable
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
