Modelling the impact of some control strategies on the transmission dynamics of Ebola virus in human-bat population: An optimal control analysis

Abstract

Qualitative research and comprehensive public awareness to nip the transmission of Ebola virus in the bud before it becomes a global threat is fast becoming imperative especially now that the Gambia Ebola virus is mutated. It is therefore necessary to consider and investigate a vector-host transmission model for possible control strategy of this deadly disease. Hence, in this study, we presented a novel and feasible human-bat (host-vector) ShEhIhRhisRhni−SbEbIb model which foretells the spread and severity of the Ebola virus from bats to humans to investigate the combined effects of three control strategies viz: (1) allowing specialized and designated agencies to bury deceased from Ebola infection without relatives touching or curdling the remains as usually practiced in most part of Africa as last respect for their departed love ones (k1), (2) systematic and deliberate depopulation of bats in the metropolis (through persecution with pesticide exposure, pre capturing, chemical timber treatment for roosts destruction) to discourage hunting them for food by virtue of their proximity (k2) and (3) immediate treatment of infected individuals in isolation (k3). We established, among others, the endemic equilibrium, disease-free equilibrium, global and local stability, non-negativity, and boundedness of the model to prove the epidemiological feasibility of the model. The reality of the presence of optimal control remarkably influences the dynamics of transmission of the virus and simulated results also confirm the great effect of the combination of the control strategies k1, k2 and k3 in flattening the curve of Ebola transmission (fig 1 – fig 8). Health workers and policy makers are better informed with fundamental precautions that could help eradicate Ebola from the populace.