Modelling the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the spread of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia

Abstract

Countries around the world have implemented a series of interventions to contain the pandemic of coronavirus disease (COVID-19), and significant lessons can be drawn from the study of the full transmission dynamics of the disease caused by—severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)—in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh regions of Saudi Arabia, where robust non-pharmaceutical interventions effectively suppressed the local outbreak of this disease. On the basis of 333732 laboratory-confirmed cases, we used mathematical modelling to reconstruct the complete spectrum dynamics of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia between 2 March and 25 September 2020 over 5 periods characterised by events and interventions. Our model account for asymptomatic and presymptomatic infectiousness, time-varying ascertainable infection rate, and transmission rates. Our results indicate that non-pharmaceutical interventions were effective in containing the epidemic, with reproduction numbers decreasing on average to 0.29 (0.19–0.66) in the Eastern, Madinah, Makkah, and Riyadh region. The chance of resurgence after the lifting of all interventions after 30 consecutive days with no symptomatic cases is also examined and emphasizes the danger presented by largely hidden infections while switching control strategies. These findings have major significance for evaluating methods for maintaining monitoring and interventions to eventually reduce outbreaks of COVID-19 in Saudi Arabia in the future.