Abstract
Migrants may be exposed to health risks before, during and after leaving their countries of origin. Unfortunately, knowledge about the health status of migrants is often limited because they are often excluded from surveys. This paper extends the susceptible-exposed-infective-removed model to handle the assumption of homogeneous mixing, the incorporation of migration and the induced death rates of the disease in modelling the spread of HIV/AIDS. These extensions demonstrate that the impact of migration on HIV persistency is critical when attempting to predict where and how fast the disease will propagate. The spectral analysis of a time series was used to determine the frequency at which the disease is spread and its equilibrium levels. The results indicate that with the persistent flow of migration into a country, the disease status changes from epidemic to endemic. If the direct flow of migration into the population is restricted, the persistent spread of the disease can be minimised.
Highlights
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which leads to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), has become a problematic infectious disease in both the developed and developing countries
The motivation of this paper is to investigate how migration has affected the spread of HIV
We modelled the impact of the persistent flow of migration on the population with HIV
Summary
The human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, which leads to acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS), has become a problematic infectious disease in both the developed and developing countries. Possible ways to combat that spread, not just through drugs and through enhanced environmental control, can be proposed Such models can lead to novel hypotheses and predictions that can be grounded in the data available to health organisations responsible for modelling or controlling the spread of AIDS. The migration of health experts from Ghana has been a cause for concern This concern has become so important that the effect of migration flow on the spread of HIV modelling is being considered. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate how the impact of the external net migration of people on the persistent spread of HIV in Ghana. Spectral analysis is used to determine the rate at which the HIV spreads with the flow of external migration
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