Modelling the impact of maternal pneumococcal vaccination on infant pneumococcal disease in low-income settings

Abstract

Pneumococcal disease is a leading cause of mortality in young children. The largest burden of pneumococcal disease is in the first six months of life before protection from a complete schedule of direct immunisation is possible. Maternal pneumococcal vaccination has been proposed as a strategy for protection in this period of early childhood; however, limited clinical trial data exists. In this study, we developed an age-structured compartmental mathematical model to estimate the impact of maternal pneumococcal vaccination. Our model demonstrates how maternal pneumococcal vaccination could prevent 73% (range 49–88%) of cases in those aged <1 month and 55% (range 36–66%) in those 1–2 months old. This translates to an estimated 17% reduction in deaths due to invasive pneumococcal disease in children under five. Overall, this study demonstrates the potential for maternal pneumococcal vaccination to meaningfully reduce the burden of infant pneumococcal disease, supporting the case for appropriate field-based clinical studies.