Modelling the impact of introducing first-generation narrowbody hydrogen aircraft on the passenger air transportation network in Europe

Abstract

The global aviation industry faces a pronounced challenge to mitigate its contribution to anthropogenic climate change, which is caused by burning fossil fuels. One potential pathway is the transition towards using green hydrogen as zero-carbon fuel. Next to technological, infrastructural, and economical challenges, this would introduce a wide range of operational and infrastructural changes to a system centred around safety and reliability. This study employs a holistic approach and examines these changes from a flight network perspective, focusing on passenger transport in Europe. It utilizes network modelling and linear optimization techniques to determine network changes imposed by the introduction of first-generation narrowbody hydrogen aircraft. The findings are threefold: First, the study shows that the air transportation network can be adequately re-created using demand and direct operating cost optimization only, without considering revenue and airline-specific factors. Second, the introduction of hydrogen aircraft will have substantial impact on network structure, incl. flight frequency, capacity, and stopover routes, depending on seat capacity and range of the hydrogen aircraft design. Lastly, it also shows that airports that have a favourable green hydrogen supply will benefit from the introduction of hydrogen aviation.