Modelling the Impact of Climatic Change on Growth of Spring Barley in Finland

Abstract

According to the present scenarios, atmospheric C02-concentration ((C02)) and the average air temperature of the earth will rise in future. The predicted longer growing season in Finland would mean that more productive cultivars and even new crop species could be grown in Finland. Moreover, in addition to increase in crop productivity caused by longer growing period, higher (CO2) is also likely to increase dry matter production of crops in the future. This paper describes a crop model which could be used to estimate the effect of rises in air temperature and (CO2) on develop- ment and growth of cereals. Based on the results of the spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) cultivar used in the present study, day length may only have a limited effect on the rate of development under Finnish growing conditions, even if sow- ing could be done 1 month earlier than at present (currently early May in southern Finland). The crop model used in the present simulation study was able to take into account reason- ably well the effect of solar radiation, air temperature and (CO2) on crop growth. However, as the validation experiment was conducted with only one soil type and one fertilization level, more research still needs to be done to validate the present model in a range of field conditions.