Abstract
The potential impact of climate change on disease development was evaluated using mathematical modelling. Disease forecasting systems for late blight of potato [Phytophthora infestans], apple scab [Venturia inaequalis], and cercospora blight of carrot [Cercospora carotae] were selected to evaluate their relevance in predicting future events related to climate change. In general, if these models are to be valid for such predictions, they must predict adequately actual field observations. Many of the forecasting systems developed a few years ago are in need of updating. Disease forecasting systems using nonlinear responses to temperature and leaf wetness offer more potential to represent the impact of climate change and variability on disease epidemiology.
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