Abstract
Mass drug administration (MDA) is, and has been, the principal method for the control of the schistosome helminths. Using MDA only is unlikely to eliminate the infection in areas of high transmission and the implementation of other measures such as reduced water contact improved hygiene and sanitation are required. Ideally a vaccine is needed to ensure long term benefits and eliminate the need for repeated drug treatment since infection does not seem to induce lasting protective immunity. Currently, a candidate vaccine is under trial in a baboon animal model, and very encouraging results have been reported. In this paper, we develop an individual-based stochastic model to evaluate the effect of a vaccine with similar properties in humans to those recorded in baboons in achieving the World Health Organization (WHO) goals of morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem in populations living in a variety of transmission settings. MDA and vaccination assuming different durations of protection and coverage levels, alone or in combination, are examined as treatment strategies to reach the WHO goals of the elimination of morbidity and mortality in the coming decade. We find that the efficacy of a vaccine as an adjunct or main control tool will depend critically on a number of factors including the average duration of protection it provides, vaccine efficacy and the baseline prevalence prior to immunization. In low prevalence settings, simulations suggest that the WHO goals can be achieved for all treatment strategies. In moderate prevalence settings, a vaccine that provides 5 years of protection, can achieve both goals within 15 years of treatment. In high prevalence settings, by vaccinating at age 1, 6 and 11 we can achieve the morbidity control with a probability of nearly 0.89 but we cannot achieve elimination as a public health problem goal. A combined vaccination and MDA treatment plan has the greatest chance of achieving the WHO goals in the shorter term.
Highlights
Schistosomiasis inflicts significant levels of human morbidity and mortality in regions of the world with endemic infection
Simulations suggest that the probability of achieving morbidity control and elimination as a public health problem depends on the duration of protection provided by vaccination, the age categories of the human host population vaccinated, and the coverage levels achieved
In order to achieve elimination as a public health problem, model simulations suggest that combining vaccination with Mass drug administration (MDA) is the best option, in high transmission settings
Summary
Schistosomiasis inflicts significant levels of human morbidity and mortality in regions of the world with endemic infection. Control programmes are at present based on mass drug administration (MDA) using the drug praziquantel, and behaviour modification directed at reducing water contact and improvements in sanitation. Age-related water contact behaviour results in most infection residing in school-aged children (SAC; 5–14 years of age), since age intensity of infection profiles are convex in shape. Preschool aged children (pre-SAC) are not eligible for treatment with praziquantel [5] due to the absence of clinical data on the drug effects and safety in the very young. By 2020, WHO aims to increase coverage in areas of endemic infection such that 75% of SAC at risk
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