Modelling the Hungarian energy system – The first step towards sustainable energy planning

Abstract

In Hungary, there is a need for detailed alternatives to its fossil-based, highly import-dependent energy system. In this paper, an energy model of the Hungarian energy system of 2009 is worked out, as a reference model for a 100% renewable-based scenario. The model is created in the EnergyPLAN software and is able to simulate all sectors of the national energy system on an hourly basis. The EnergyPLAN software and the main issues of its first Hungarian application are presented. The model is validated by comparing its results to Hungarian and international statistics for 2009. Two alternative models – ‘Natural gas + biomass’ and ‘Biomass’ – were created in EnergyPLAN for an analysis to see how the energy system of 2009 could have been operated in an optimised way from environmental point of view, within the existing infrastructure. In ‘Biomass’ alternative model, the utilisation of primary renewable energy sources almost doubles, causing a decrease of 10% in carbon-dioxide emission. By changing the distribution of fuels by a different power plant utilisation, more favourable fuel consumption characteristics could have been achieved from the environmental point of view in 2009.