Abstract
Modelling the growing need for social care in older people
Highlights
Continuing ageing of populations raises many major questions beyond top-line predictions of the size of older groups over the coming decades
In The Lancet Public Health, Andrew Kingston and colleagues have addressed the issue of dependency in their new Population Ageing and Care Simulation (PACSim) modelling study,[1] forecasting that the largest change, relatively and absolutely, to 2035 in England will be growth in the number of men and women who will not have care needs
When the proportions of people in the three dependency states in 2011 were applied to Office of National Statistics population projections for the UK, the predicted increase in the high dependency group was 400 000 (62%) between 2015 and 2035.2 This forecast rate of increase is considerably larger than that estimated in the new PACSim study[1] based on more representative data
Summary
Continuing ageing of populations raises many major questions beyond top-line predictions of the size of older groups over the coming decades. Modelling the growing need for social care in older people
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