Abstract
Dietary change has been suggested as a key strategy to maintain food security, improve health and reduce environmental impacts in the face of rising populations, resource scarcity and climate change impacts, particularly in developed countries. This paper presents findings from a quantitative modelling analysis of food availability and environmental implications of shifting the current average Australian dietary pattern to one of two alternative, healthy dietary patterns, the ‘healthy mixed diet’, with a mixture of animal and plant foods, and the ‘healthy plant-based diet’, with only plant foods. Both were constructed in accordance with the Australian Dietary Guideline recommendations, and four sustainability principles: Avoiding over-consumption, reducing intake of discretionary foods, reducing animal products, and reducing food waste. It was assumed that all food was provided domestically where possible, and export of foods only occurred when there was a surplus to domestic requirements. The authors compared the impacts of each dietary pattern on direct food availability, water use, land use, greenhouse gas emissions, fuel and energy use and fertiliser use. The plant-based diet had the best overall environmental and direct food availability outcomes, however had key vulnerabilities in terms of fertiliser and cropping land availability. For the agricultural sector overall, changes in diet had little effect on environmental impact due to the amount and nature of Australian exports, indicating that changes to production methods are also necessary. Likewise, changing diets had little effect on the existing environmentally intensive Australian economy, indicating that changes to other sectors are also necessary.
Highlights
Concerns regarding threats to future food security are well documented [1,2]
Overall consumption of food by volume, from the combination of population multiplied by food consumed per capita, grows in The Path We’re On’ (TPWO) and the alternative diets scenarios (Figure 2)
Per capita consumption of beef begins as higher in the TPWO diet compared to the healthy mixed (HM) diet but decreases over time according to historical trends in ASFF
Summary
Concerns regarding threats to future food security are well documented [1,2]. Globally the population is expected to reach nine billion by 2050, and already, the food system is failing to meet the nutrition needs of hundreds of millions of people [2,3]. Developing healthy, fair and environmentally sustainable food systems will be essential if the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are to be achieved. This realisation has prompted researchers around the world, including Australia, to look more closely at foods and dietary patterns that are both healthy and sustainable and that contribute to the mitigation of climate change. In order to ensure that resources are being used in the most efficient way possible to meet health needs, it is important to reduce food waste [15]
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