Modelling the energy demand projection of the building sector in Greece in the 21st century

Abstract

This research focuses on projecting the energy demand of the building sector in Greece by calculating energy consumption, using output data from regional climate models up to 2100. More specifically, Greece was subdivided into 13 climatic zones after assessing climate model data taking into account climate change estimates for the period 2010–2100. These zones allow a detailed estimation of the effects of climate change in specific regions of the country, thus creating a database which is used to model the energy demand of the building sector in each zone. Through the use of building data from Eurostat and the European Centre for Environment, a set of three building typologies was created in relation to the building envelope, which corresponds to 85% of the building stock in Greece. These typologies were later appended to each of the 13 climatic zones and a simulation for their energy demand was calculated using climatic data from 3 distinct climatic scenarios. Results show that the energy demand for heating the building sector in Greece could decrease by about 50%, while the respective energy demand for cooling could increase by as much as 248% until 2100. These effects are more evident in the Southern part of the country.