Abstract
BackgroundMass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects of mass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, by including ‘media functions’ that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models. The choice of function to employ, however, varies, and thus, epidemic outcomes that are important to inform public health may be affected.MethodsWe present a survey of the disease modelling literature with the effects of mass media. We present a comparison of the functions employed and compare epidemic results parameterized for an influenza outbreak. An agent-based Monte Carlo simulation is created to access variability around key epidemic measurements, and a sensitivity analysis is completed in order to gain insight into which model parameters have the largest influence on epidemic outcomes.ResultsEpidemic outcome depends on the media function chosen. Parameters that most influence key epidemic outcomes are different for each media function.ConclusionDifferent functions used to represent the effects of media during an epidemic will affect the outcomes of a disease model, including the variability in key epidemic measurements. Thus, media functions may not best represent the effects of media during an epidemic. A new method for modelling the effects of media needs to be considered.
Highlights
Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population
Mass media that is transmitted via technological media can be used to inform the public during pandemics and epidemics
An understanding of the effects of media during an epidemic or pandemic threat can aid in the development of public health policy
Summary
Mass media is used to inform individuals regarding diseases within a population. The effects of mass media during disease outbreaks have been studied in the mathematical modelling literature, by including ‘media functions’ that affect transmission rates in mathematical epidemiological models. The choice of function to employ, varies, and epidemic outcomes that are important to inform public health may be affected. According to the Public Health Agency of Canada, inter-pandemic (or seasonal) influenza affects approximately 20, 000 Canadians, with approximately 2, 000 to 8, 000 deaths annually [3]. In the USA, it has been reported that flu-associated deaths can range from 3, 000 to 49, 000 individuals per year [4]. Mass media can affect disease transmission during an influenza epidemic or pandemic. Attention to health news has been increasing in importance during the last few decades, and media reports can play an important role in defining health issues, since they serve as a major
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