Modelling the effects of ionizing radiation on survival of animal population: acute versus chronic exposure.

Abstract

The objective of the present paper was application of a model, which was originally developed to simulate chronic ionizing radiation effects in a generic isolated population, to the case of acute exposure, and comparison of the dynamic features of radiation effects on the population survival in cases of acute and chronic exposure. Two modes of exposure were considered: acute exposure (2-35Gy) and chronic lifetime exposure with the same integrated dose. Calculations were made for a generic mice population; however, the model can be applied for other animals with proper selection of parameter values. In case of acute exposure, in the range 2-11Gy, the population response was in two phases. During a first phase, there was a depletion in population survival; the second phase was a recovery period due to reparation of damage and biosynthesis of new biomass. Model predictions indicate that a generic mice population, living in ideal conditions, has the potential for recovery (within a mouse lifetime period) from acute exposure with dose up to 10-11Gy, i.e., the population may recover from doses above an LD50 (6.2Gy). Following acute doses above 14Gy, however, the mice population went to extinction without recovery. In contrast, under chronic lifetime exposures (500days), radiation had little effect on population survival up to integrated doses of 14-15Gy, so the survival of a population subjected to chronic exposure was much better compared with that after an acute exposure with the same dose. Due to the effect of "wasted radiation", the integrated dose of chronic exposure could be about two times higher than acute dose, producing the same effect on survival. It is concluded that the developed generic population model including the repair of radiation damage can be applied both to acute and chronic modes of exposure; results of calculations for generic mice population are in qualitative agreement with published data on radiation effects in mice.