Abstract
We studied the effects of warming and rising temperatures on the ground beetle fauna of Bavarian beech forests using the space for time approach at two geographical scales. The first was a Bavarian-wide gradient of 50 plots in beech forests and the second a regional gradient in the Bavarian Forest in the mountains in eastern Bavaria consisting of 48 plots, which also included subalpine spruce forests. For purposes of validation, we used backdrop data from 413 additional plots all across Bavaria from a wide range of forest habitats. We found five that would be favoured and six that would be disadvantaged by rising tem- peratures in beech forests. For another five the conditions within the gradient studied reach both their minimum and their maximum temperatures. As a consequence of increasing temperatures there will be winners and losers in these forests and the spe- cies composition of ground beetle communities will change. Approximately the same number of is likely to profit as will be affected negatively. However, when considering the global responsibility species for Germany, the balance is negative. Species may react differently in different habitats and at different regional scales, which must be taken into consideration when applying the results.
Highlights
The scope of global warming and its regional effects are subject to some uncertainty, there has been a clear general increase in temperature over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007)
We studied the effects of global warming and rising temperatures on the ground beetle fauna of Bavarian beech forests using the space for time approach at two geographical scales
We focus on the results of the Bavarian temperature gradient (BG) and use the regional gradient data (RG) and backdrop datasets (AF and AB) only to compare and test the validity and robustness of the model predictions for the species found in beech forests
Summary
The scope of global warming and its regional effects are subject to some uncertainty, there has been a clear general increase in temperature over the last 100 years (IPCC, 2007). Temperatures are increasing in central Europe and many parts of this region are becoming dryer, with an increase in precipitation in winter months and a change from snow to rain. It is likely there will be an increase in the frequency of extreme events like drought. Little is known about the likely consequences of rising temperatures and corresponding changes in water availability on widespread species and habitats like European beech forests, the most prominent type of forest in central Europe. In the absence of human inference it is likely that beech forests would cover large parts of central Europe, including most of Bavaria (Ellenberg, 1996). Beech forests are absent only in small areas of other habitats like ravine forests, bogs, floodplain forests, pure stands of Scots pine on sand dunes, or oak forests on pure clay soils
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