Abstract
The population dynamics of aquatic insects were simulated using a stage-projection matrix model. Transition elements, some of which were specified by nonlinear and stochastic functions, represent the joint probability of development and survivorship from time t to t + 1. For the simulation, stage-specific survivorship was kept unchanged and only development rate and fecundity were altered. The simulation predicts that the intrinsic capacity for population growth (rm) and equilibrium levels of abundance (K) should increase with both faster development rate and higher fecundity, independent of stage-specific mortality. As a test of the effect of accelerated development on population growth, abundance of insects emerging from experimental stream channels was compared in ambient temperature and heated channels. Development was faster in the heated channels, and abundance was greater for 9 of the 11 species compared. These results indicate that changes in development rate, in addition to changes in fecundity, must be considered when predicting the population effects of an altered thermal regime.
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