Abstract
This article examines the effect of land use and climate change on the water balance and nitrate leaching in the eastern part of Denmark. The evaluation and scenario analysis is carried out using the dynamic agroecosystem model ‘Daisy’ set up for a number of representative soil types and land management scenarios providing the basis for an average regional assessment of nitrate leaching. It is found that evapotranspiration will increase while changes in percolation and drainage depend on soil type and land management. Average weighted nitrate leaching rates are increased by 24% if management practices are kept constant, whereas a status quo is expected when management options are changed. However, Daisy is sensitive to inputs in the soil organic N pool and a better understanding of how this pool develops in a climate change situation is required if reliable predictions should be obtained together with an assessment of the effect of land management changes.
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