Modelling the effect of environmental pollution on Zika outbreak: A case study of Brazil

Abstract

In this paper, we formulate a compartmental model to study the Zika Epidemic in Brazil. The goal of this work is to understand if pollution plays any role in the spread of Zika Epidemic. Some theories are there in the literature that show that there might be a direct relation between Zika spread and environment contamination. However, it is very hard to find real-world data to justify these claims. In the present study, we have used the official data and have provided a direct link to fill that void. For the study, we have considered the combination of the human population and mosquito population. We have provided a complete theoretical study of the model. For the proposed model we have derived the basic reproduction number, stability analysis as well as bifurcation analysis corresponding to the basic reproduction number $ R_0 $. The stability of disease free equilibrium corresponding to $ R_0 < 1 $ implies that the disease can be eradicated provided $ R_0 $ does not exceed 1. We have also implemented PRCC technique to perform global uncertainty analysis. Our numerical simulation shows the impact of various sensitive parameters on $ R_0 $. We have also shown how the invectives will amplify different scenarios. Also, we have gathered real data and shown a direct relation of environmental contamination of the disease spread.