Modelling the effect of environmental factors on the growth of Aspergillus parasiticus and mycotoxin production in paddy during storage

Abstract

The simulated experiment of A. parasiticus isolated from the paddy was carried out during the paddy storage for 20 days. The growth and mycotoxin data were collected for constructing kinetic and probability models of moulds. The Baranyi and Gompertz model was employed as the primary model and estimated the lag phase and maximum specific growth rate. Secondary models, such as polynomial, Davey and Gibson model were used and completely evaluated under different conditions. The polynomial equation was highly rated compared with Gibson and Davey model and gave realistic temperatures and aw for mould growth. Logistic model showed promising results on the prediction of growth boundary and AFB1 production. Employed models showed promising predicted results, indicating that it is an effective tool for describing and predicting the growth of moulds under different temperatures and aw. The results can be applied to develop the optimal strategy to prevent fungal spoilage and aflatoxin production during paddy storage.