Modelling the deterioration of buried infrastructure as a fuzzy Markov process

Abstract

Research Article| March 01 2006 Modelling the deterioration of buried infrastructure as a fuzzy Markov process Yehuda Kleiner; Yehuda Kleiner 1Senior Research Officer and Group Leader, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council Canada (NRC), 1200 Montreal Road, Building M-20Ottawa, ON Canada K1A 0R6 Phone: 1-613-993-3805 Fax: 1-613-954-5984 yehuda.kleiner@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca E-mail: yehuda.kleiner@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Rehan Sadiq; Rehan Sadiq 2Research Officer, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council Canada (NRC), 1200 Montreal Road, Building M-20Ottawa, ON, Canada K1A 0R6 Phone: 1-613-993-6282 Fax: 1-613-954-5984 rehan.sadiq@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Balvant Rajani Balvant Rajani 3Principal Research Officer, Institute for Research in Construction, National Research Council Canada (NRC), 1200 Montreal Road, Building M-20Ottawa, ON Canada K1A 0R6 Phone: 1-613-993-3810 Fax: 1-613-954-5984 balvant.rajani@nrc-cnrc.gc.ca Search for other works by this author on: This Site PubMed Google Scholar Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua (2006) 55 (2): 67–80. https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2006.074 Article history Received: August 23 2005 Accepted: December 08 2005 Views Icon Views Article contents Figures & tables Video Audio Supplementary Data Share Icon Share Twitter LinkedIn Tools Icon Tools Cite Icon Cite Permissions Search Site Search nav search search input Search input auto suggest search filter All ContentAll JournalsThis Journal Search Advanced Search Citation Yehuda Kleiner, Rehan Sadiq, Balvant Rajani; Modelling the deterioration of buried infrastructure as a fuzzy Markov process. Journal of Water Supply: Research and Technology-Aqua 1 March 2006; 55 (2): 67–80. doi: https://doi.org/10.2166/aqua.2006.074 Download citation file: Ris (Zotero) Reference Manager EasyBib Bookends Mendeley Papers EndNote RefWorks BibTex Dearth of data is the greatest acknowledged obstacle to the deterioration modeling of the buried infrastructure assets. In the last two decades numerous models have been proposed with a greater emphasis on Markovian Deterioration Processes (MDP). The MDP requires that the condition of the deteriorating system be encoded as an ordinal condition rating, based on numerous distress indicators obtained possibly from direct and indirect observations, as well as from non-destructive tests. The encoding of distress indicators into condition rating is inherently imprecise and involves subjective judgment. This imprecision is not considered, let alone propagated in the traditional application of the MDP.In this paper a new approach is presented to model the deterioration of buried infrastructure assets using a fuzzy rule-based, non-homogeneous Markov process. This deterioration model yields the ‘possibility’ of failure at every time step along the life of the asset. The use of fuzzy sets and fuzzy techniques help to incorporate the inherent imprecision and subjectivity of the data, as well as to propagate these attributes throughout the model, yielding more realistic results.This paper is the first of two companion papers that describe a complete method of managing failure risk of large buried infrastructure assets. The second companion paper describes how the condition ratings along the life of the asset are converted to risk values and how effective decisions can be made about the renewal and/or scheduling the next inspection of the asset. condition rating, deterioration, failure risk, fuzzy Markov, infrastructure, large water mains This content is only available as a PDF. © NRC 2006 You do not currently have access to this content.