Modelling the current distribution and predicted spread of the flea species Ctenocephalides felis infesting outdoor dogs in Spain

Rosa Gálvez,Giuseppe Cringoli,Laura Rinaldi,Oihane Martín,Ana Montoya,Vicenzo Musella,Valentina Marino,Rocío Checa,Guadalupe Miró,Miguel A Descalzo

doi:10.1186/s13071-017-2357-4

Abstract

BackgroundThe cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. The status of flea infestation today is an evident public health concern because of their cosmopolitan distribution and the flea-borne diseases transmission. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Using geospatial tools, models were constructed based on entomological data collected from dogs during the period 2013–2015. Bioclimatic zones, covering broad climate and vegetation ranges, were surveyed in relation to their size.ResultsThe models builded were obtained by negative binomial regression of several environmental variables to show impacts on C. felis infestation prevalence: land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer and autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement and normalized difference vegetation index. In the face of climate change, we also simulated the future distributions of C. felis for the global climate model (GCM) “GFDL-CM3” and for the representative concentration pathway RCP45, which predicts their spread in the country.ConclusionsPredictive models for current climate conditions indicated the widespread distribution of C. felis throughout Spain, mainly across the central northernmost zone of the mainland. Under predicted conditions of climate change, the risk of spread was slightly greater, especially in the north and central peninsula, than for the current situation. The data provided will be useful for local veterinarians to design effective strategies against flea infestation and the pathogens transmitted by these arthropods.

Highlights

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions
The model obtained for prevalence using generalized linear models revealed an effect on C. felis prevalences of land cover, bioclimatic zone, mean summer temperature, mean autumn temperature, mean summer rainfall, distance to urban settlement (UrS) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)
Two Corine Land Cover (CLC) classes, four bioclimatic zones (Temperate oceanic, Temperate hyperoceanic, Mesomediterranean and Thermomediterranean), NDVI, mean autumm temperature and mean summer rainfall were negatively correlated with C. felis prevalence

Summary

Introduction

The cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis, is the most prevalent flea species detected on dogs and cats in Europe and other world regions. This study determines the spatial distribution of the cat flea C. felis infesting dogs in Spain. Entomological surveillance and vector species occurrence data are essential to generate distribution models for arthropod vectors. This type of information is readily available from several web sites, such as FleaTickRisk (http://www.fleatickrisk.com) and VectorMap (http:// vectormap.si.edu) [13, 14]. With the introduction of geographic information systems (GIS) and other geospatial tools, there is growing interest in modelling vector distributions based on climate and environmental drivers for epidemiology studies and follow-up of arthropod vectors [15,16,17]. Only Beugnet et al [14] have modelled the distribution of the cat flea affecting pets based on climate forecasts for a large geographical area [14]

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