Modelling the Current and Future Spatial Distribution Area of Shea Tree (&amp;lt;i&amp;gt;Vittelaria paradoxa&amp;lt;/i&amp;gt; C. F. Gaertn) in the Context of Climate Change in Benin

Yasminath Judith Follone Avaligbé,Aliou Saïdou,Orou Daouda Bello,Césaire Paul Gnanglè,Ibouraïma Yabi,Faki Oyédékpo Chabi,Léonard Ahoton

doi:10.4236/ajcc.2021.103012

Abstract

In Benin, Shea tree (Vitellaria paradoxa) is one of the agroforestry species of great socio-economic importance for local populations. Given the actual variation in the climate parameters, it is necessary to anticipate the future spatial distribution of Shea trees as an adaptation strategy and for designing relevant conservation strategies. The aim of the present research was to evaluate the influence of climate change on the distribution areas of Shea trees in Benin. Occurrence data consisting of geographic coordinates of Shea trees in Benin as well as bioclimatic variables were recorded. Furthemore, additional presence points were collected from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database website. Current and future environmental data for the study area were obtained from the Africlim website. Bioclimatic variables (moisture and temperature), monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and annual rainfall were collected from Worldclim synoptic stations website for the period 1970-2000. The aridity index was created from the potential evapotranspiration (PET) and annual rainfall, using spatial analysis tools of ArcGIS. The impact of current and future environmental conditions on favourable Shea trees’ growing area was assessed following the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) approach under two climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Under the current climate conditions, 80% of Benin territory and 79% of the protected areas were highly favourable for Shea trees growing and conservation. However, all climate scenarios projected the significant decrease of 14% to 19% of the distribution of favourable for Shea tree growing area and 26% to 30% of the protected areas by 2055 in favour of non-favourable for the trees’ distribution. The protection of habitats favourable for the species development, coupled with a quick restoration of the species through the use of appropriate vegetative propagation techniques are required to sustain the species’ conservation in Benin and maintain farmers’ livelihood.

Highlights

Plant genetic resources are an important component of biodiversity that contribute to food security and improved livelihoods (World Agroforestry Centre, 2008)
The Jackknife test (Figure 2) and the variable contribution analysis (Table 1) identified six variables out of the 21 bioclimatic variables studied as contributing to the spatial distribution of V. paradoxa
This means that the aridity index contains more useful information than the other variables, while the minimum temperature of the coldest period has most of the information that is absent in the other environmental variables

Summary

Introduction

Plant genetic resources are an important component of biodiversity that contribute to food security and improved livelihoods (World Agroforestry Centre, 2008). In Africa, non-timber forest products (NTFPs) are used by people to meet their daily needs for food, nutrition, health products and household energy. Integrating NTFPs into productive agricultural areas has been recommended to sustain African livelihoods and protect the environment (Leakey, 2010). F. Gaertn) is one of the species relevant to these objectives mentioned above (Avaligbé et al, 2021)

Objectives

Methods

Results

Discussion

Conclusion