Abstract
AbstractAimMediterranean Chile is part of the five recognized mediterranean‐type climates in the world and harbours a very rich floral diversity. Climate change has been reported as a significant threat to its biodiversity. We used the flora of Mediterranean Chile to analyse how biodiversity patterns, as measured by phylogenetic diversity, genus and species richness will respond to climate change scenarios and identify the areas that will harbour the greatest evolutionary potential and biodiversity richness. We also evaluated how these spatial patterns are depicted within the current network of protected areas.LocationChilean Mediterranean climate‐type Region, South America.MethodsBiodiversity metrics were evaluated for current and future climatic scenarios. Species distribution models were done using Maxent for 1.727 species and 571 genera. Relationships between species/genera gain, loss and turnover were evaluated. For Mediterranean endemic species, loss and gain were also related to life‐form. Finally, variation in species gain, loss and turnover was evaluated in future climate change scenarios within and outside Mediterranean Chile state protected areas.ResultsWe found a general decrease in species richness in the entire Region towards future climate change scenarios. Phylogenetic diversity is predicted to be higher than expected by richness in the north–south of the area and lower than expected by richness in the Andes Mountain. The highest average species and genus loss is predicted to occur outside the protected areas; meanwhile, species and genus gain is higher within them.Main conclusionsFuture biodiversity patterns are reported here for the first time in the Chilean Mediterranean Region. Our findings enhance the importance of the current protected areas to harbour this future variation, despite their reduced number and size along the region.
Highlights
Biodiversity loss has been reported as one of the most serious men‐ aces to ecosystems, threatening human welfare and ecosystem resilience worldwide (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Rockström et al, 2009; Steffen et al, 2015)
The Intergovernmental Science‐Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) includes the importance of biodiversity in a global context, defining Nature's Contributions to People (NCP) as all contributions, benefits or even negative contributions that people obtain from na‐ ture
One of the main challenges of any conservation strategy is the uncertainty caused by climate change phenomena, as any strategy needs to be able to predict the conditions that ecosystems will have to face in the future (Pressey, Cabeza, Watts, Cowling, & Wilson, 2007)
Summary
Biodiversity loss has been reported as one of the most serious men‐ aces to ecosystems, threatening human welfare and ecosystem resilience worldwide (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005; Rockström et al, 2009; Steffen et al, 2015). Because climate change has been reported as one of the significant threats to biodiversity (Klausmeyer & Shaw, 2009), this study was set out to investigate how climate change scenarios may affect bio‐ diversity patterns in a mediterranean biodiversity hotspot, using the Mediterranean area of Central Chile as a case study. For this area of the world, climate change predictions estimate a general decrease in precipitation and up to 4°C increase in temperature (Garreaud et al, 2017). We estimated the capacity of the PA system to harbour future richness and PD
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