Abstract
Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are not only vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, but also pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife. Many developing countries have struggled to control FRD, despite using both lethal and non-lethal methods. India has amongst the highest FRD populations globally and the highest incidences of dog-mediated human rabies, but only deploys Catch–Neuter–Vaccinate–Release (CNVR) for FRD control as a humane alternative to lethal methods, without evidence of it working successfully. Here, we use an agent-based dog population dynamics model to examine the time, effort, financial resources, and conditions needed to successfully control FRD in a typical urban setting. We simulate several scenarios, from an “ideal world” closed population with easily accessible dogs, to a more realistic open population with heterogeneity in catchability of dogs. In only one “best-case” scenario, CNVR resulted in a significant and lasting reduction in FRD, but with vaccination rates peaking only at 35%, which is half the WHO-recommended coverage. The customisable and portable modelling tool that we have developed allows managers to simulate real world processes and understand the expected effort needed to reduce regional dog populations, and assess methods for achieving effective anti-rabies vaccination coverage.
Highlights
Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, and pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife
FRD are associated with the transmission of zoonotic diseases such as rabies, zoonotic visceral leishmaniasis, canine echinococcosis, and soil borne helminths[3,4,5,6,7]
As per the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), one of the main objectives of dog population control programmes like ABC is to reduce the abundance of FRD21
Summary
Free-ranging domestic dogs (FRD) are vectors of zoonoses of public health concern, and pose direct threats to humans, livestock, and endangered wildlife. Amongst the countries with the largest FRD populations in the world, India stands out as it accounts for an estimated 20 million dog bite cases per year and around 20,000 dog-mediated human rabies deaths per annum[8,16,17]. Lethal methods, such as using strychnine poisoning or culling in gas or electric chambers were implemented haphazardly for decades, but without ancillary measures to restrict access to resources and restricting roaming behaviour, the dog populations r ebounded[19,20]. These methods were criticized for being unnecessarily cruel and were subsequently outlawed[18]. Monitored continuously for over a decade (e.g. Jodhpur, India), model simulations suggest that the program may result in population reduction of ~ 70% over a 13–18 year period in the best case scenario of ~ 85% population coverage[22]
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