Modelling the Berths Throughput of Export Coal Terminal with Stochastic Methods

Abstract

AbstractTransportation research is devoted to stochastic processes and throughput modeling for marine side of coal export terminals. The difference in calculated and operational throughput (in Russia is 2–3 times difference) is significant problem for investors and the price of port handling. Operating experience has been accumulated over the past decade, which can be the basis for more efficient simulation calculations. The operations structure, bulk vessels, port planning and design in the proposed stochastic model is detailed and based on the existing terminal in the Far East of Russia (Daltransugol) in the period up to 2018. The dataset is highly elaborate and includes operations of handling equipment, vessels, port services and downtime due to weather conditions. Assumptions about the initial data are based on probability distributions of the mathematical model. The average result (probability P50, median) is the throughput of 20.47 mln t/year, optimistic (P10) – 24.94 mln t/year, and pessimistic (P90) – 15.75 mln t/year. The range of the results is adequate, given that the actual cargo turnover of the existing terminal ranged from 17.0 mln t in 2015 to 20.1 mln t in 2018. The novelty of probabilistic operational statistics and efficiency issues, which in details are demonstrated in numerical experiment, could be the planning clarification for new upcoming projects and support for decision-making problems for existing coal terminals to maximize the throughput. Important finding, this could be done by searching of big non-operational losses (absence of coal in storage area, absence of fleet, change of conveyor routes, etc.).KeywordsThroughput modellingExport marine terminals and ports planningPorts and terminals stochastic processesPort performanceMarine terminals benchmarking