MODELLING THE ANNUAL SHOOT STRUCTURE OF THE APRICOT TREE (CV LAMBERTIN) IN TERMS OF AXILLARY FLOWERING AND VEGETATIVE GROWTH

Abstract

On the apricot tree, one-year buds can bear flowers on their prophylls. According to the twig type developed and the number of flowers, we consider different axillary complexes. They organize the annual shoot in successive zones. The resulting structure is modelled by a Markov chain. To each state of the Markov chain are associated an occupancy distribution which represents the zone length in terms of number of nodes and two observation distributions which represent respectively the twig type and the number of flowers. The whole model is a hidden semi-Markov chain. The basal part of the shoot is represented by two transient states. For the remaining part of the shoot, the states are recurrent and structured by the number of flowers which increases from 1 flower to 2 flowers, then from 2 flowers to 3 flowers, and afterwards decreases by the inverse arrangement. This emphasizes the flowering and growth capability of the buds according to their rank on the annual shoot. Dependencies along the shoot and within an axillary complex are discussed.