Modelling the amount of inputs needed for methamphetamine manufacture in Afghanistan.

Abstract

The use and manufacture of methamphetamine has increased in Afghanistan in recent years. Recent research and reports have pointed to the ephedra plant, which grows wildly, as a key source of ephedrine used in the manufacture of methamphetamine. This paper aimed to estimate the relative efficiencies and scale of inputs required to manufacture methamphetamine in Afghanistan. Monte Carlo simulations model of the amount of ephedra or cold medications needed to render a pure kilogram of methamphetamine in Afghanistan, accounting for uncertainty in ranges of key parameters informed from the literature and elsewhere. Final estimates were extrapolated to recent seizure totals. For dried ephedra, the median estimate is 196.8kg (25th-75th percentiles 119.3-346.6kg) needed to produce 1kg of methamphetamine compared with 27.9kg (25th-75th percentiles 21.9-36.8kg) for cold medications. Nearly 2.7t of methamphetamine were seized in Afghanistan in 2021. Assuming a purity range of 50%-90%, some 266-478 t of dried ephedra or 38-68 t of cold medication would need to have been processed. Simulated estimates show that considerable amounts of either ephedra or cold medication are needed to produce 1kg of methamphetamine in Afghanistan. This raises questions about the plausibility of ephedra as the dominant source of Afghanistan's methamphetamine.