Modelling the adoption of autonomous vehicle: How historical experience inform the future preference

Abstract

This study investigates individuals’ preference towards autonomous vehicle (AV) as a privately-owned vehicle and as a vehicle in shared services. One of the key features of this study is to examine the effects of historical changes and experiences over the life course towards the adoption of AVs. A joint bivariate ordered probit model is developed using data from a retrospective survey conducted in the Okanagan region of British Columbia, Canada. The model captures unobserved error correlation between the response variables: preference towards AV ownership and using AV as a vehicle in shared services. The model confirms the existence of a significant error correlation between preferences for AV ownership and sharing. The model results suggest that AV adoption is significantly affected by individuals’ historical experiences over the life course, such as exposure to technology, household characteristics, vehicle ownership, and accessibility and built-environment attributes of the residential location. For example, individuals with historical exposure to technologies including average smartphone ownership/person in the household over the life course and availability of advanced vehicle technology such as lane assist, parking assist, and autonomous emergency stop in the current and previously owned vehicles are more likely to adopt AVs. Individuals historically living in suburban areas have a higher likelihood of owning AVs whereas historically urban dwellers living in higher mixed land use neighbourhoods over the lifetime are more likely to prefer AV sharing. Ownership of technology devices such as smartphones and google home may lead to owning as well as sharing AVs. In addition, the model retains the effects of attitudinal factors, and socio-demographics. For instance, pro-environment individuals are likely to own and share AVs. Pro-shared-mobility individuals are more likely to share AVs whereas they are less interested in owning.