Modelling the abundance of mosquito vectors versus flooding dynamics

Abstract

An approach allowing the estimate calculation for the local abundance of mosquito vectors as a function of the variations of environmental conditions of their breeding habitats is developed. To characterize the mosquito reproductive habitats and associated vectorial dynamics, we have introduced the concepts and derived expressions of the (i) vectorial production capacity of the breeding habitat, which gives the number of vectors the breeding site is capable to produce per day, (ii) the susceptibility or availability function of the breeding habitat which measures the degree of overlap in the course of time between oviposition and emerging surfaces, and (iii) the time-dependent vectorial reproduction number, resulting from the combination of (i) and (ii), which characterizes the growth dynamics of the vector population. As an illustrative application, the method analysis is employed to characterize the potential of mosquito production of two ground pools known as likely sources of vectors of Rift Valley Fever.