Abstract
Abstract This study uses high resolution Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), SWAT and two IPCC climate change (CC) scenarios (A1B and B1) combined with two general circulation models (GCMs) (HADCM3 and MPEH5) to evaluate impact of CC on streamflow in the White Volta basin of West Africa. The evaluation criteria (R2 and NSE > 0.70 and PBIAS within ±25%) during calibration and validation showed good simulation of the basin hydrology. Using average streamflow from 1979 to 2008 as a baseline, there were uncertainties over the sign of variation of annual streamflow in the 2020s. Annually, streamflow change is projected to be within −4.00% to +13.00% in the 2020s and +3.00% to +16.00% in the 2050s. Monthly streamflow changes for most months vary between −13.00% and +32.00%. A shift in monthly maximum streamflow from September to August is projected, while the driest months (December, January and February) show no change in the future. Based on the model results, the White Volta basin will likely experience an increase in streamflow by the mid-21st century. This would call for appropriate investment into cost-effective adaptive water management practices to cater for the likely impact of CC on the future hydrology of the basin.
Highlights
Surface water plays a crucial role in many sectors in West Africa (WA), such as agriculture, hydropower generation, fisheries, livestock watering, recreation and tourism
Fourteen of the 21 parameters analysed were found to be more sensitive to the output of SWAT in the basin
The two most sensitive parameters, i.e., Cn2 and evaporative compensation factor (Esco) are in agreement with sensitivity analysis results of previous studies by Awotwi et al ( ) and Kankam-Yeboah et al ( ) in the White Volta basin
Summary
Surface water plays a crucial role in many sectors in West Africa (WA), such as agriculture, hydropower generation, fisheries, livestock watering, recreation and tourism. Even though most of the agriculture in WA is rain-fed, some regions strongly depend on surface water. The fishing sector depends strongly on river discharge. The drought conditions that occurred in WA in the 1970s and 1980s caused a drop of À50% in fisheries production of the Niger delta, resulting in a loss of about USD 20 million per year (Neiland & Béné ). The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
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