Modelling species distribution, ecosystem structure and function and climate change

Abstract

In recent decades, oceans have been increasingly stressed by human activities that induced significant changes in its abiotic properties. Temperature increase, acidification, deoxygenation, deregulation of ocean currents are some examples of the anthropogenic impact on our oceans. In addition, pollution and overexploitation of marine resources will lead to severe and possibly irreversible changes for marine life. As environmental conditions directly affect the physiology of species, changes in species distribution and trophic interactions have already been observed and are expected to increase in the near future. Predicting future oceans is currently a great challenge for scientists that work to maintain, as best as possible, the goods and services they provide. In this context, ecologists have developed several modeling approaches able to simulate changes in both species distribution (Ecological Niche Models – ENMs) and interactions (static and dynamic food-web models). This chapter explains these two approaches in detail as well as the ways by which these two families of models can be coupled. In each part, the main existing algorithms will be reviewed, with their advantages and limitations, and some key examples retrieved from recent scientific literature will be presented. Finally, we will discuss the current issues of these methods and their potential improvement.